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Alex

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发表于 2013-8-6 13:14 | 只看该作者
利息又跌 0.25,   但美金和澳币的汇率不跌反而升了, 看来市场已经吸收了利息下跌的影响度额........


期待正面的经济刺激, 和房市的火爆了
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242#
发表于 2013-8-6 14:45 | 只看该作者
本周末抢房据说要开始拼体力了。。。
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243#
 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-8 10:57 | 只看该作者



Australians are healthier and wiser but are not sharing the wealth, a new snapshot of the country's welfare has found.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report suggests people living in cities are better off than their country counterparts despite the higher cost of living in urban areas.
The 30 per cent of the population living outside major cities suffered higher death rates, greater unemployment and were more likely to have a disability.
While it noted some improvements for Indigenous Australians, the report found that they had a higher mortality rate than the entire population and continued to be over-represented in the justice system.


Institute chief executive David Kalisch said the report, Australia's Welfare 2013, revealed stark gaps across the country.
"Where we live, our family structure and our levels of education all affect the quality of our lives and how long we can expect to live," he said.
Australians are living longer. People aged 65 or over make up 14 per cent of the population, compared with 8 per cent in 1972. Meanwhile, the proportion of people aged under 25 has fallen from 46 per cent to 32 per cent over.
The ageing population is affecting household structure, with the proportion of "empty nester" couples set to overtake couples with kids by 2014 - even though children are staying in the family home for longer.
The proportion of non-dependent children living with parents grew from 20 per cent in 1997 to 23 per cent in 2009-10.
The soaring cost of housing, from four times the average household income in 2002 to seven times in 2011, is also having an impact. More households are paying off a mortgage than own their homes outright - 36 per cent versus 33 per cent - a reversal of the figures from 10 years ago.
The proportion of renters is up, to 29 per cent from 26 per cent in 1994-95, and housing stress for low income households increased from 19 per cent to 22 per cent between 2003-04 and 2009-10.
The cost of living may explain the increase in the number of older people still in the workforce.
Over the past decade, the proportion of men aged 65-69 in the workforce leapt from 20 per cent to 34 per cent while the proportion of women in the same age group still working increased from 9 per cent to 20 per cent, although the majority worked part time.
The proportion of part-time workers has doubled over the past 30 years, with one in three employees working part time in 2012.
Young people and those with a disability suffered higher rates of unemployment than the general population.
We are wiser, with 59 per cent of people holding a non-school qualification in 2012 compared with 48 per cent in 2002.
The wealthiest group in the community were those aged 55-64, whose households had a mean net worth of just over $1 million, comprising property, superannuation and other assets.
The highest-earning 20 per cent of households had an average post-tax income of $1704 a week compared with the lowest-earning 20 per cent, whose income was $314 a week.
About 13 per cent of the Australian population is living in poverty and 25 per cent receive government assistance, such as the aged pension, carers or disability allowance or family support payment.

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244#
发表于 2013-8-8 18:20 | 只看该作者
今天澳洲股市和汇市全涨。原因是中国的经济数据见好。
Alex

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发表于 2013-8-8 19:24 | 只看该作者
在利息下降的拖拽下, 美金汇率今晚还是回到90 “生死”线了   
Alex

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246#
发表于 2013-8-9 08:20 | 只看该作者
现在0.9116, 开始回到理念的位置
Alex

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247#
发表于 2013-8-12 12:10 | 只看该作者
今天回到92 了

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248#
发表于 2013-8-13 20:03 | 只看该作者
刚看到一篇悉尼晨锋报的文章。文中提到美国的标普断言如果中国经济严重放缓,澳洲的银行评级会掉两个级( two notches), 房价会下降四分之一(25%)。够下人的吧?

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249#
发表于 2013-8-15 08:59 | 只看该作者

回复 250楼 kiwidragon 的帖子

这在几个月前已经有数据说明了的。。估计会下降,具体多少那就谁也说不准了。

最近因为可以进入到澳洲房产数据库,经过查看,发现目前很多房子的售价还没有达到2006年是的价格,有一些房子因为太久没有卖出,结果中介就直接贴出已售,一查,还是没有成交记录。(看来一定要注意这类假火热的现象了)

以下这个分析不错,贴过来以备后用:

In short the Fed taper is the culprit. Irrespective, the direct implication is higher cost of funds for the banks. The RBA is now fighting the Fed which may slowly choke off Australia’s low mortgage rates via rising wholesale funding costs.

But if not, for house prices to continue to accelerate, I expect credit growth will need to move decisively above 6% growth and probably towards 7% from its current levels of 4.8%. In 2010, mortgage growth rates went above 8% but this was offset by tumbling business credit holding aggregate growth to just 3%. That would not happen this time around.

By my calculations, these levels of credit growth will only be possible if the banks are extending their offshore borrowing at $10-20 billion per annum. So very quickly, perhaps within twelve months, we would have a situation where the underlying economy is struggling to grow as mining investment falls and the Australian dollar has not fallen much further, asset prices are out of control and financial stability is becoming a pressing question.

What does the RBA do? It has explicitly repudiated macroprudential tools and would need a long consultative process to install them so it is questionable it could do much on that front. The government of the day is unlikely to be helpful. The Bank could try the jawbone, in fact it already is, with Stevens warning households again to not increase their leverage in his recent speech. But that hasn’t worked for the RBNZ and does not appear to be working for Sydney-siders either.

In short, amid the greatest run down in Australian business investment anyone can remember and perhaps the most desperate need for a lower dollar in twenty years, the RBA will be forced to stomp on the specufestor outbreak by jacking the cash rate, with disastrous consequences for the economy.

The RBA is taking an almighty punt by not insuring this cycle with a move to expand its policy tools.

[ 本帖最后由 我无聊 于 2013-8-15 09:06 编辑 ]

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发表于 2013-8-15 17:22 | 只看该作者
Alex

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251#
发表于 2013-8-19 09:32 | 只看该作者
现在回升到92 了, 纪录下

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252#
发表于 2013-8-20 18:52 | 只看该作者
The Australian dollar’s direction will be important in setting monetary policy, the Reserve Bank says, as it signals further interest-rate cuts remain a possibility.
在这个声明后,澳币应声跌到91以下。这样,利息到年底前可能还会跌,但不一定。我查了下资料,上半年的房贷涨了大约六个点。
另外,大家要注意,明年起,各人的信誉/信用信息会更透明化。比如,你在银行的信贷细情会被人查到。
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-9-3 13:18 | 只看该作者
The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the cash rate at 2.5 per cent as it waits for recent rate reductions work their way through the economy

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发表于 2013-9-4 09:48 | 只看该作者
PSI 数据显示澳洲已经进入了通缩阶段。。。

新gov-ern-ment会不会用制造通胀来阻止通缩继续。。。或许这是唯一的手段了。。

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255#
发表于 2013-9-5 15:31 | 只看该作者

回复 256楼 我无聊 的帖子

那是日本人搞的,而且弊病很多。
Alex

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发表于 2013-9-11 18:46 | 只看该作者
澳元近期的強勢反彈行情引起了市場人士的強烈關注。


  業內專家指出,帶動澳元近期走強的主要因素在于中國發布的各項8月份經濟數據繼續向好,而中國作為澳洲最大的貿易伙伴,與澳洲在經濟上有著密切的關聯,這使得澳元的走勢受到助推,尤其,中國上週末發布的進出口貿易數據全線向好,對澳元更是起到了明顯的提振效果。


  除此之外,澳大利亞大選在上週末塵埃落定,自由黨-國家黨聯盟的領袖阿博特(Tony Abbott)無懸念地順利當選,將接替工黨領袖陸克文出任總理,而與商界關系通常更加友好的右翼政黨勝選,對于經濟前景往往也會是利好,因而,澳元的漲勢也受到了這一消息的影響。


  此外,美元指數在上週五發布的美國8月份非農就業數據不佳後下跌,這也對澳元匯價構成了推動。業內機構稱,非農數據使得投資者對美聯儲在下週會議上縮減購債力度的決心再起疑心,這使得美元指數承壓,令各主要非美貨幣都錄得漲幅。


  不過,專家指出,澳元兌美元的隨機指標RSI已經超過了75,進入超買區間,近期或面臨短線回調壓力,在0.9388-0.9404區間也會遭遇巨大的技術阻力。


  但專業人士還支持,在下方,澳元兌美元在0.9190、0.9115、0.9063和0.9010處也有著足夠的支撐。


  今早(9月11日)澳洲東部時間9點50分,澳元兌美元報0.9307.

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发表于 2013-9-12 10:22 | 只看该作者
Australian dollar crunched on jobs



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment decreased 10,800 (0.1%) to 11,637,100.
Full-time employment decreased 2,600 to 8,128,800 and part-time employment decreased 8,200 to 3,508,300.
Unemployment increased 9,400 (1.3%) to 714,100.
The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased 2,300 to 516,300 and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased 11,700 to 197,800.
The unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
The participation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 65.0%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 1.1 million hours to 1,650.0 million hours.

[ 本帖最后由 我无聊 于 2013-9-12 11:26 编辑 ]

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发表于 2013-9-18 18:35 | 只看该作者

回复 259楼 我无聊 的帖子

今天澳币上93, 我想下几个月中国的制造业还会有更好的消息,再加上要和多国签自由贸易协议,这些都会推高澳元。新gov-ern-ment的加大外z资到澳洲,会加大对澳币的需求。

另外,大选结束,舆论要转向。不能接着唱衰,要捧场。其实这次昆省的亿万富翁直接参选是有点看头的。没有中意的代理人,只好亲自上阵了。

[ 本帖最后由 kiwidragon 于 2013-9-18 10:42 编辑 ]

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发表于 2013-9-18 20:23 | 只看该作者
我还是认为目前是b浪反弹。

这轮减息除了把Sydney的房产搞起来外,对其他零售业和制造业并没有带来多少起色,而且澳币如果再继续升值的话,RBA必定会有所动作把澳币给压下来的...

[ 本帖最后由 我无聊 于 2013-9-18 20:43 编辑 ]

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发表于 2013-9-18 21:42 | 只看该作者
我也认为澳元现在是波浪反弹,反弹的原因主要是对美联储明天即将召开的会议,针对QE政策的提前反应,还有就是Lawrence summer被认为是dollar positive 的候选人, 他的退出势必带来美元下跌。
澳洲的经济虽有回升的迹象,但到目前为止,还是below trend; 而且澳元上涨对出口带来的负影响,会使RBA考虑进一步降息的可能。
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/dollars-new-strength-a-headache-for-rba-20130917-2tvt0.html
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